ISM Conference September 2001
The future for socialism in Scotland.
Conference paper by Alan McCombes
1. There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
--William Shakespeare, Julius Caesar (1599)
2. In February 1998, the leadership of Scottish Militant Labour (the forerunner of the ISM) published a short document, Initial Proposals for a New Scottish Socialist Party. That document made the following observation:
3. 'There is immense potential for the building of a socialist party in Scotland capable of expressing the ideals of socialism in the language of the 21st century. At this stage there is an extraordinary and unprecedented contradiction in Scottish politics, reflecting a similar disparity in politics across Britain. On the one side, there is a widespread and deep-rooted abhorrence of the inequalities and injustices that lie at the heart of the free market capitalist system. Yet due to lack of confidence that there is any viable alternative to the free market, the combined forces of socialism are weaker than perhaps any time this century.'
4. The decision to transform the Scottish Socialist Alliance into a new, united socialist party required both political courage and historical imagination. An array of forces, including the leadership of the CWI (the international to which the ISM then belonged), other groupings inside the SSA, and socialist organizations outside the SSA opposed the project from the outset. The CWI leadership argued that few additional forces could be attracted by the launch of a new party and that we were in period of 'retreat, defeat and disintegration'. This was a time, not for making a bold leap forward into the future, but for battening down the hatches and preserving a small, elite cadre. Within the Scottish Socialist Alliance there was also opposition to the idea of creating a more unified, cohesive party - though most of those who argued for the continuation of the status quo did at least stick with the project. Outside the Alliance, both the Socialist Workers Party and Arthur Scargill's Socialist Labour Party refused to become involved - though the SWP did later change its position after seeing in action the success of the SSP during its first two years.
5. Not in the language of polemics and debate, but in the arithmetic of scores of new branches, thousands of new members, and tens of thousands of new voters, the stance of SML/ISM and other members of the old SSA have been spectacularly vindicated.
6. The gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK has widened dramatically over the course of the past three years. The contrast between Scotland and Wales, for example, is quite startling; even both countries share many common features including strong socialist working class traditions, a sense of separate national identities, and devolved national assemblies. In the 1997 general election, the percentage vote for socialist candidates in Wales was actually higher than in Scotland. But now the divergence is striking. In Wales, the combined socialist vote actually fell from 7000 to just 5000 between the 1997 and 2001 general elections. In Scotland, the combined socialist vote rose dramatically, from 12,000 to 75,000 ' including 72,000 votes for the SSP alone. In the seven constituencies that make up the sparsely populated Highlands and Islands, the SSP took more votes in the general election than the combined forces of socialism managed to muster in the whole of Wales.
7. Since the general election, support for the SSP has continued to grow. Opinion polls for the next Holyrood elections show the SSP ' after less than three years in existence ' now has approximately half the support (5-6%) of the Tories (11%) who have operated in Scotland for centuries and were within living memory the strongest party north of the border.
8. Of course, the strength of any political movement cannot be gauged purely by electoral support. Over the past three years, the ramshackle SSA has been transformed beyond all recognition, with a network of around 70 branches criss-crossing every region of Scotland, a membership of up to 3000, a 16 page weekly newspaper that reaches thousands of readers, and influence over tens of thousands of trade unionists via key national and local leaders of unions including the GMPU (printers), the RMT (railworkers), the PCS (civil servants), the CWU (postal workers), UNISON (health and local government workers), the EIS (teachers).
9. In urban working class Scotland, the SSP is now clearly the most active and vibrant political party. Writing in the Sunday Herald (12.08.01) the pro-New Labour commentator, Iain MacWhirter pointed out that, across the UK, Labour membership has actually halved since 1997, from around 440,000 to 220,000. He commented: 'This is a massive exodus of the politically committed. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the true picture is worse still. In Scotland the activist base has, by all accounts, almost disappeared. The Labour Party seems to consist almost exclusively of elected members, councillors, MSPs and their staff. Real Labour membership in Scotland must be a few thousand at best.'
10. That means that in 'real terms' ' excluding councillors and paid professional politicians - the SSP is now probably stronger than the Labour Party. By the same measurement, the SSP has outstripped the SNP in the big cities and in the working class heartlands of the central belt.
11. From a wider political perspective, the SSP has gone a long way towards achieving three key medium term objectives. In the first place, it has given renewed confidence to thousands of people who would previously have regarded themselves as socialists but had become disoriented by the defeats of the 1990s. Secondly, it has introduced the ideas of socialism to a whole new generation of workers and young people through hundreds of public meetings millions of leaflets, masses of media coverage and the party's own publications. And thirdly, the SSP has unified the forces of socialism in Scotland far beyond what most people would have imagined possible even a few years ago. On the one side, Arthur Scargill's sectarian SLP is now completely marginalized. On the other side, the SWP has now joined the SSP en masse and effectively ended public sales of the Socialist Worker in Scotland after 40 years to unite behind a single paper and a single party.
12. The process of rebuilding socialism in Scotland is now well underway. Moreover, it is being rebuilt on an entirely different basis from the past. No longer is socialism in Scotland dominated by the ideas of Stalinism or parliamentary reformism. In its place we are beginning to build a mass socialist movement, which is revolutionary, which is democratic and which is anti-authoritarian. We can also predict with confidence that the best is yet to come. The past three years has not been the easiest period in which to launch and build a new socialist party. Continuing growth in the economy has generated a certain amount of prosperity. Unemployment is now at it lowest level for a quarter of a century. At the same time, there have been no major industrial or social battles comparable with, for example, the miners' strike of 1984-85 or the anti-Poll Tax movement of 1989-90.
13. On the other hand, this period illustrates graphically that there is no mechanical relationship between economic growth and support for capitalism. Over the past decade, world capitalism has achieved economic success by utilising technology to overcome the limitations of the national economy and by overcoming resistance to deregulation and cheap labour. But the price it has had to pay for that economic progress is an ideological weakening of the system itself. It is now clearer to more people than ever before that the profit system generates grotesque social inequality and endangers the future of the planet itself.
14. The anti-capitalist, anti-globalisation movement has had a profound impact on ideology and consciousness internationally. As an article in the Financial Times pointed out after Genoa, 'We have lost the battle for the streets and we are now in danger of losing the battle of ideas.'
15. The demonstration in Seattle at the end of 1999 did not mark the beginning of the anti-capitalist ideological fightback. The early growth of the SSP and the breakthrough into the Scottish Parliament six months before Seattle illustrates that a section of the working class and youth in Scotland were already moving into opposition to capitalism on the basis of their own experiences locally. In other European countries, notably France, Italy and Portugal, anti-capitalist parties and alliances had also begun to win over the allegiance of a significant minority of the population long before the big anti-capitalist demos erupted onto the streets. Nonetheless the sheer drama of these events, which has touched billions across the globe via TV and the press, has provoked widespread questioning of the values and morals of capitalism.
16. That does not mean that Gothenburg and Genoa are the main topics of discussion in the pubs of Govan and Leith. But big ideological shifts tend to be expressed indirectly, even subliminally, rather than in a straightforward fashion. The anti-capitalist movement has created a climate of debate, discussion and questioning in place of the previous universal acceptance that capitalism and the free market was the only show in town.
17. Against that background of the ideological weakening of capitalism the looming economic recession could open up a vast new audience to the case for socialism. At this stage, that mood is one of vague opposition to the worst excesses and injustices of capitalism, rather than one of clear-cut support for socialism. But in the event of a severe economic downturn, or a new upsurge of workplace militancy, that general opposition to injustice could escalate dramatically and could become focused much more clearly on the search for a socialist alternative
18. A serious downturn in the Western economies is likely to lead to a blizzard of redundancies and closures, plummeting tax revenues, and escalating social security spending. This in turn would force the government to mount a no-holds-barred onslaught against public services, wages and conditions. That is not to suggest that we are on the brink of revolution, as some of the more excitable left commentators have suggested in the aftermath of Genoa. Nor is it to suggest that any future move towards socialism will erupt simultaneously on a world- wide basis.
19. Until relatively recently, much of the Marxist left refused to accept that there was any such phenomenon as globalisation. For example, in a major article in the April 1996 issue of the CWI journal Socialism Today - 'Global Myths' - it was argued that the international economy had not fundamentally changed since Karl Marx wrote the Communist Manifesto back in 1848. Theories of globalisation had been exaggerated, claimed the article. "Capitalism cannot globalise because it is based on the mutually antagonistic competition of nationally-based capital."
20. However, it would be equally mistaken to bend the stick too far in the opposite direction or to see only one side of the process of globalisation. It is one of the striking paradoxes of the last decade that while the ruling powers of the planet have sought to smash down national boundaries, the trend from below has been in the opposite direction. At the start of the 20th century, there were 62 nation states in the world. By 1945, that had risen to 74. Today there are close on 200. Across Northern Europe, not just the xenophobic conservative right, but also the working class and its organisations have resisted the move towards greater European integration. At the same time, there is a general international upsurge in support of movements for national and regional autonomy and national independence. In an indirect way, this is part of the anti-globalisation movement: it represents a revolt against the growing centralisation and uniformity of capitalism.
21. If in the next period the European economy plunges headlong into recession, these centrifugal forces are likely to intensify. Opposition to the project of European integration will probably gather pace, while within states such as Spain, Italy, France, Belgium and the UK, regional and national movements are likely to escalate.
22. For socialists in Scotland, the national question is of decisive importance. In the last fifteen years, there has been a growing political divergence between Scotland and England, a process that is now beginning to be replicated in Wales.
23. In retrospect, the turning point was the 1987 general election, when Thatcher was returned to power for the third consecutive time. In each election from 1979 onwards, Scotland had rejected the Tories by a greater margin each time. By the 1987 general election the Tories had been reduced to just 25 per cent of the vote, their lowest share of the poll ever. Immediately, the constitutional debate over Scotland's future revived with a vengeance. Even right wing Labour politicians began to declare that the Tories had no mandate in Scotland. The STUC began to spearhead the campaign for a Scottish assembly with a demonstration through Glasgow and various cross-party initiatives.
24. This stirring rebellion against the ultra-centralism of Thatcher soon began to converge with the beginnings of a movement against the proposed new Tory Poll Tax. By April of 1988, the anti-Poll Tax campaign had begun in earnest, with the formation of a number of local anti-Poll Tax unions to resist registration. The Poll Tax itself became a focus of more generalised discontent against a Tory government whose attitude to Scotland was beginning to resemble that of the old colonial imperialists in Africa and Asia. That mood of national resentment began to find a political expression in the form of the rise of the SNP, especially after the sensational Govan by election in late 1988, when Jim Sillars swept to victory in a safe Labour seat on the basis of his support for mass non-payment of the Poll Tax.
25. Since then, the national question has remained a central feature of politics in Scotland, at different stages ebbing and flowing according to circumstances. Objectively, the SNP is now a stronger position than at any time in its history. In contrast to the early to mid 1980s, when the party was reduced to a shell, the SNP today has hundreds of councillors, a group of MPs and dozens of MSPs.
26. However, the extraordinary decision by Alex Salmond to stand down and the subsequent election of John Swinney has unquestionably weakened the appeal of the party. Swinney is an extremely cautious individual who lacks the fire and charisma of Salmond. Anecdotal evidence suggests that SNP activists expect to do badly in 2003 under Swinney's leadership. There are rumours within the SNP that Salmond is planning to stand for Holyrood in 2003 and will make a comeback as party leader immediately after that election if the SNP fail to emerge as the biggest party.
27. Yet the weakness of the SNP leadership is only one side of the equation. The other side is the weakness of the Scottish Labour leadership and the potential for Labour support to crumble away over the next two years.
28. Labour fought the last three major election campaigns in Scotland ' the 1997 general election, the 1999 Scottish election and the 2001 Scottish election ' under extremely favourable circumstances. But the 2003 elections could take place under radically different conditions. Despite the SNP's lacklustre performance in the general election, the polls show the SNP even now in a strong position for the 2003 Scottish elections. With the dark clouds of recession gathering on the horizon, and discontent bubbling in the trade unions over privatisation, the run-up to the second Holyrood elections could be turbulent.
29. Despite itself, the SNP could become Scotland's biggest party in Holyrood in 2003. It is not ruled out that the pro-independence parties ' the SNP, the SSP and the Greens - could even command an outright majority in the next Scottish Parliament. Even if events move at a slightly slower pace, that is the general direction in which Scottish politics is now headed. Socialists have to intervene in these events with clarity and decisiveness, not least on the national question.
30. Especially in the charged atmosphere that is opening up, there will be no room for ambivalence on the national question. The SSP's clear and unequivocal policy in favour of an independent socialist Scotland will give the party a powerful cutting edge in the battle for political influence. We should not be the slightest bit defensive about our position on independence, which in the conditions of 21st century Scotland is both a revolutionary policy and a basic democratic demand.
31. The debate in Scotland today over independence is not a debate between nationalists and internationalists. The word 'nationalism' is so broad that it has become almost meaningless. On the one hand, it has connotations of chauvinism, bigotry, tribalism and ethnic cleansing. From Adolph Hitler to Slobodan Milosevic, from the French Front to the BNP in Britain a range of unsavoury individuals and organisations define themselves as nationalists. On the other hand it is used to describe movements for national independence or autonomy across the world from Kashmir to Kurdistan, from Catalonia to Quebec.
32. But these two conflicting faces of 'nationalism' are not just two variants of the same phenomenon. They represent two qualitatively different - indeed diametrically opposed ' philosophies. One stands for national superiority: for the subjugation of other nations and other peoples, for the elevation of one national culture above all others. The other stands for national equality: for their nation to have the same rights, the same powers, the same degree of autonomy as other nations.
33. It is crude and simplistic to equate defence of the British union with internationalism, and support for Scottish independence as nationalism. If such logic were to prevail, socialists would be duty bound to support a single European currency and other steps in the direction of a European superstate. We would also be duty bound to oppose protests against capitalist globalisation, and instead defend the integration of the world economy by the multinationals.
34. Instead of a quasi-religious approach, which elevates internationalism to the level of a mystical doctrine separated from the real world, socialists have to approach the national question concretely. If the euro succeeds will it strengthen or weaken capitalism? Does globalisation strengthen or weaken capitalism? Would the break up if the UK strengthen or weaken capitalism? And what would be the impact on the working class and socialist movement internationally if the drive to a united capitalist Europe is defeated, or if the globalisation process is halted or reversed, or if the United Kingdom were to broken up?
35. There are no clear-cut, black and white answers to any of these questions. But what we can do is weigh up the advantages and disadvantages, the dangers and the opportunities on all sides.
36. In Scotland, three features of the national question stand out. In the first place, it is not based on race, language, religion or ethnicity. In that sense it is quite different form Quebec, for example, or Belgium, where language is the decisive feature. To some extent language also plays a part in Wales and Catalonia and, to a lesser extent, in the Basque Country. In Ireland divisions over the national question have revolved around religion and culture rather than language.
37. In contrast, support for Scottish independence is drawn from all religions and ethnic communities. Polls conducted in the past few years have shown majority support among the Catholic population for Scottish independence - in contrast to the 1970s when Catholics feared the prospect of becoming a persecuted minority in an independent Scotland. Because of the links with Kashmir, there is also significant support among Scotland's Asian population for independence, while pollsters calculate that 10 per cent of English incomers into Scotland back the SNP, with others backing the pro-independence SSP and Green Party. Undoubtedly there are anti-English sentiments in Scotland. Yet paradoxically it is the pro-independence parties that have been most vociferous in recent years in challenging anti-English bigotry.
38. The second feature of the national question in Scotland is its class character. At the time of the devolution referendum the CBI Scotland polled the 1200 Scottish company directors. Of these, 80 per cent were opposed to devolution. Over 90 per cent were opposed to tax-varying powers. All but a handful opposed independence. Scotland's bankers, landowners, aristocrats and big businessmen overwhelmingly support the Union.
39. At the other end of the social spectrum, polls have found support for independence strongest among so-called DE voters ' the low paid, the lone parents and the unemployed. This marks quite a dramatic shift from the 1970s when support for independence tended to be stronger in rural areas and among the more skilled and professional sectors.
40. Similarly it is the youngest age groups who are most strongly in favour of independence, with support for the Union strongest among the older age groups. Equally, in terms of national identity, a sense of Britishness is strongest among pensioners and gradually weakens in descending order of age. The youngest age groups overwhelmingly identify themselves as Scottish rather than British.
41. A third feature of the national question is that in general people who support independence are more likely to see themselves as socialists and to support more left wing and progressive policies on issues such as privatisation, public services, redistribution of wealth, racism, nuclear weapons, low pay and anti-trade union laws. Again, this represents an important change from the 1970s when the idea of left wing politics focussed almost exclusively of bringing about a socialist Britain.
42. This change is partly rooted in the widening political divergence between Scotland and England. In England, the political centre of gravity is significantly further to the right than in Scotland. Notwithstanding the SNP's gradual shift rightwards over the past decade, the main opposition party is still perceived as being well to the left of Labour on issues such as nuclear weapons, the minimum wage, privatisation and public services. In England the main opposition to New Labour comes from the rabid right Tory Party, now led by Ian Duncan Smith.
43. Even the Labour Party in Scotland has been forced to reflect, up to a point, the different political climate. Comfortable in the knowledge that at this stage there is nowhere else for traditional Labour voters to go, the New Labour language of people like Blair, Straw, Blunkett and even Prescott is far more blatant in its contempt for socialist values than that of their Scottish counterparts who are constantly forced to look over their left shoulder Even in policy, there have been some minor variations, again reflecting the greater caution of New Labour in Scotland.
44. On top of that, the forces of genuine socialism have been able to make a far greater impact in Scotland than in England. The SSP is almost five years ahead of the Socialist Alliances in England in terms of both organisation and general influence. Some people have argued that over time, that gap could close. As a theoretical possibility, such a trend could not be ruled out. But in practice, the opposite process is likely to unfold, with a steady widening of the gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK
45. Of decisive importance in the success of the SSP was the transformation of the looser Scottish Socialist Alliance into a cohesive party with a single newspaper, a coherent political ideology and a strong organisational and financial apparatus. That change was a necessary prerequisite of the electoral breakthrough the SSP made in 1999. At the same time, without such a party, it would have been impossible to consolidate that electoral influence into a powerful phalanx of activists organised into a dense network of branches.
46. For a variety of reasons, neither of the two larger organisations involved in the Socialist Alliances, the SWP and Socialist Party are prepared to take the bull by the horns and move decisively towards the creation of a unified party. Instead of being transformed into a real political party with a national newspaper, a dense network of local branches and a powerful organisational apparatus, the Socialist Alliances look set to continue for the next period as a looser electoral pact.
47. Given that lack of momentum, there is at least a question mark over whether the Alliances will develop much further, or whether at some stage they will be eclipsed by a more traditional reformist breakaway from Labour and the trade unions. Even since the election, there have been rumblings within some trade unions, including a statement from Dave Prentiss, the general secretary of UNISON, who threatened that the union may campaign against Labour in the 2003 Scotland and Wales elections if Blair forges ahead with his privatisation project. Although this is largely bluster, designed to put pressure on the government to water down its plans, it nonetheless illustrates how far Blair has pushed some sections of the labour movement away from Labour.
48. In Scotland, it should be said, the SSP has established itself so clearly and strongly on the consciousness of the broad mass of the population that it would now be virtually impossible for the party to be bypassed or eclipsed by future reformist breakaway from the official labour movement. Instead the SSP is likely to remain central to any future developments on the left in Scotland.
49. In any case, whatever happens in England, over the next two years, events in Scotland are unlikely to stand still. The SSP has now breached the credibility barrier to the point where is now seen as a mainstream political party. As we have described elsewhere, the SNP existed on the margins of Scottish politics for four decades before achieving the level of support the SSP has been able to build in less than three years.
50. The breakthrough into the Scottish Parliament ' which would not have been possible without the partly proportional voting system ' was of critical importance in establishing the credentials of the SSP. After the next Scottish elections in 2003, the SSP could have anything up to nine MSPs. In England, no similar opportunities will arise at least until the London Assembly elections in 2004 ' and even then, it would be a tall order for the London Socialist Alliance in its present form to come anywhere near matching the performance of the SSP.
51. Partly because of the role of the SSP, but also because of the overall class balance of forces within Scotland, public opinion in Scotland is well to the left of New Labour. Following the blockade of Trident earlier this year, during which there were hundreds of arrests, a poll showed that 51 per cent backed the illegal blockade with only 27 per cent opposed. Other polls have shown vast majorities in favour of wealth redistribution, bringing privatised industries and services back into the public sector, and higher pensions and benefits.
52. In some regions of England, including Merseyside, Tyneside and Yorkshire, public opinion is also to the left of New Labour. But one critical difference is that no one in any of these regions would dream of demanding independence from the rest of the UK as the solution to their problems. 53. In Scotland there is a universal sense of being part of a separate nation. As a result, there does seem to be a way forward. A substantial and growing minority of the population believe that an independent Scotland would at least offer the possibility of social progress. Others go further and see the break up of the United Kingdom as a necessary precondition for any advance towards socialism.
54. The ISM does not subscribe to a mechanical stages theory, in which the struggle for socialism is subordinated to the more immediate campaign for independence. That is the justification offered by many socialists within the SNP for remaining within what is essentially a capitalist party. Some state explicitly that post-independence they will join the SSP but in the meantime it is first necessary to focus exclusively on the goal of national independence.
55. Such an approach can only demobilise the forces of socialism in Scotland and surrender the ground entirely to the pro-capitalist right. If socialists in Scotland were now to call an ideological ceasefire in order to concentrate on the battle for independence, by the time an independent Scotland arrived, the ideas of socialism would end up completely marginalized. Rather than offering a fast track to socialist change, independence would them become a road to nowhere.
56. In any case, it is not preordained that the SNP will forever remain the leading force in the fight for an independent Scotland. If major social upheavals were to erupt in Scotland and the British ruling class began to use every means at its disposal to hold the United Kingdom together, the moderate, constitutionally obsessed SNP may be by-passed in favour of a more militant party prepared to link the struggle for independence with the struggle for sweeping social change.
57. It is impossible at this stage to be too precise. It may be that pro-independence parties including the SNP, the SSP and the Greens win a majority in 2003 or 2007 and call a constitutional referendum. We will argue support for a Yes vote in any future independence referendum, but for the SSP to simultaneously maintain its political independence and continue to present a clear vision of a socialist Scotland.
58. One of the more peculiar arguments that have been levelled against our policy on independence is that Scotland is not historically an oppressed nation. Over the past three centuries, Scotland has been a central pillar of the British Empire, a partner in plunder, runs the argument.
59. Even if Scotland has never been an oppressed nation ' and the truth is far more complex ' that is no justification for defending the Union. It is true that for the last 300 years, Scotland has been a central pillar first of the British Empire, then of the United Kingdom, one of the most powerful capitalist states on the planet. One of John MacLean's reasons for wanting to tear Scotland out of the United Kingdom was precisely because that the secession of Scotland would constitute a deadly blow to 'John Bull's blood soaked empire'.
60. Similarly, at the start of the 21st century, the break up of the UK would be a serious defeat, not just for the British ruling class, but also for US imperialism which looks to Britain as its chief international ally and uses Scotland as the main storehouse for its nuclear weapons systems.
61. That is one reason why sections of the SNP leadership (as we go to print) are attempting to overturn the party's commitment to withdrawal from NATO. Many SNP activists believe that this is the first step to ditching completely the party's anti-Trident policy.
62. In the near future, as the leadership moves further right, many SNP activists could gravitate towards the SSP. Already a steady trickle of former SNP members have defected to the SSP. In addition, many of the new recruits coming towards the SSP have previously been SNP voters.
63. In contrast to the experience of the Socialist Alliances in England, there have been few gains directly from the Labour Party. That reflects again the unique political climate in Scotland. The process of disillusionment with Labour affected activists at an earlier stage than in England for several reasons.
64. First Labour has for long been seen as the establishment party in Scotland. Even when the Tories were in power at Westminster, people in Scotland were conscious that the vast majority of Scottish MPs were Labour, and that almost every council in the country was Labour-controlled. The failure of Labour to defend Scotland from the Tory onslaughts of the 80s and early 90s meant that activists began to turn on Labour from the 1980s onwards. The SNP was able to benefit from this disaffection and, especially after the Govan by election in 1988, began to act as a magnet for some of the more leftward leaning sections of the working class and youth. People who would ten years earlier have gravitated towards Labour tended to look towards the SNP, especially in the period from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s.
65. A more localised factor was the success of Scottish Militant Labour from 1992 onwards, and the Scottish Socialist Alliance from 1996 onwards which provided an even more radical and more clear-cut socialist alternative to Labour.
66. As the article by Ian McWhirter quoted earlier illustrates, there are few real forces within the Labour Party left to attract. On the other hand, many SNP members, especially in the central belt, signed up because it was seen as a more left wing party. Many of those who joined in the 1990s are now looking sympathetically towards the SSP. As the SNP moves further rightward, many more activists can be won over to the SSP.
67. Of course, Labour in Scotland cannot be dismissed as merely a few thousand hard-core activists. The party still has decisive trade union affiliations and commands the loyalty of hundreds of thousands of voters. The SSP has to strive to make further inroads into that territory in the run up to 2003, as well as fighting to motivate the hundreds of thousands who at this stage see politics as irrelevant to their lives.
68. One field of work the SSP must now turn to in a more serious fashion than ever before is the trade unions. In a Britain as a whole, there has been a qualitative shift within the trade unions since the general election. Even some right wing trade union leaders have warned of a winter of discontent over privatisation.
69. There is now also the beginning of a debate over the link between Labour and the trade unions. A series of trade union conferences have voted to review the link. Dave Prentiss, the general secretary of Unison has hinted that in the 2003 Scottish and Welsh elections, the union may campaign against Labour. While there is a certain degree of posturing involved by union leaders whose aim is to put pressure on the government to make concessions there is nonetheless an unprecedented groundswell of hostility towards Labour within the ranks of the organised working class.
70. Around one in 20 of the total electorate now identify themselves in polls as SSP voters. Among the membership of some trade unions, particularly those organising low paid workers, that figure is probably closer to one in ten. Although that is impressive for a new party standing on a programme of red-blooded socialism, it is still far short of what needed to win over entire trade unions.
71. But if during the next few year's big struggles between the unions and Labour administrations at local, Scottish and UK level, the trade union movement could be blown wide open. Of course, it is not automatic that these clashes would then lead to unions switching allegiance from Labour to the SSP. That partly depends on the impact that the SSP is able to make in the meantime. It could also be accelerated post-2003 if the SSP succeeds in achieving a further breakthrough in Holyrood, with a handful or more MSPs.
72. Any future shift by the trade unions at local and national level would mark the beginning of the emergence of the SSP as a truly mass party, with deep roots in the working class and widespread influence. It would leave the SSP poised to become the major force in Scottish politics within a decade. Even now, we could realistically have a target of winning a majority in Scotland by the time of the 2011 elections, given the earth-shattering events that are likely to take place in the next ten years.
73. Of course, as that prospect becomes more tangible, there will be intense debate and discussion within the party about how to then translate that political majority into real power. Some people may argue in favour of a purely parliamentary road to socialism. Some sections may at a certain stage call for the SSP to enter a government, for example with the SNP - especially if that party were to shift to the left under the hammer blow of future events. Others, including the ISM, will argue for a combination of electoral struggle and mass action on the streets and workplaces to overcome the inevitable resistance of the ruling classes.
74. Those who fear that type of debate will never be capable of leading a mass party, because within any mass party worthy of the name, there will inevitably be different trends and currents of opinion. The type of chemically-pure mass 'revolutionary party' advocated by some sectarians as the only type of party worth building will never see the light of day. Indeed some of the small-scale political skirmishes that have taken place within the SSP so far are minor dress rehearsals for future, more serious political battles that will be part and parcel of forging a powerful movement capable of transforming society.
75. The ISM has nothing to fear and everything to gain from the future expansion of the SSP into a genuinely mass party. The SSP is the most open and democratic party possibly in Europe. Policy is decided by the membership on the basis of open, democratic debate. The leadership is under the control of the rank and file. There is no privileged bureaucracy at the head of the party. All public representatives have to be prepared to live on the average wage of a skilled worker.
76. That means that any future battles will be conducted on a level playing field. Ultimately, the policies, tactics and strategy that are likely to prevail within the party are those ideas that are capable of taking the battle for a socialism forward at each stage as the battle against the British state and capitalist economic system unfolds.
77. In the three years since the SSP was launched the ISM has won huge respect and influence within the party. That is partly because our ideas and analysis have stood the test of events. It is also because of our non-sectarian approach, which puts the development of the SSP before the building of our own platform and which is inclusive, open and transparent.
78. If the ISM/SML had over the past five to six years concentrated all our efforts into recruiting into our narrow organisation and publishing our own political material, the ISM would without question be significantly larger today. But our influence would be infinitely narrower. The SSP would never have been formed, the ideas of socialism would be much weaker in Scotland today, and the left would be fragmented and ineffective. The weak state of the socialist left in England or Wales compared with the socialist left in Scotland starkly exposes the consequences of sectarianism.
79. If we had to rerun the past five years, we would do the same again. In the final analysis, it is ideas, tactics, strategy and timing that are decisive rather than crude arithmetical head counts. The ISM can be proud of the central role we have played in the rebirth of the socialist movement in Scotland. We can also state confidently that the ISM is poised to play a central role in the titanic events that are likely to unfold in Scotland over the course of the next five to ten years.